Peak Oil : The Party’s Over

Matt Savinar in “Life After The Oil Crash” makes a compelling case on Peak Oil and the impending oil crisis.

Beneath the doomsday rhetoric are some engaging metaphors and projections:

The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a 200 pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the man doesn’t need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as 10-15 pounds of water may be enough to kill him.

In a similar sense, an oil-based economy such as ours doesn’t have to deplete its entire reserves of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10-15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty…

Many geologists expect that 2005 will be the last year of the cheap-oil bonanza, while estimates coming out of the oil industry indicate “a seemingly unbridgeable supply-demand gap opening up after 2007,” which will lead to major fuel shortages and increasingly severe blackouts beginning around 2008-2012.

Global oil discovery peaked in 1962 and has declined to virtually nothing in the past few years. We now consume 6 barrels of oil for every barrel we find. Significant new oil discoveries have become so scarce that oil companies are unable to earn back the money they spend exploring for it, despite record high oil prices.

One of George W. Bush’s energy advisors, energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, has spoken at length about the impending crisis. In an August 2003 interview with From the Wilderness publisher Michael Ruppert, Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:

“It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our health — greater than anyone could ever imagine.”

When asked if there is a solution to the impending natural gas crisis, Simmons responded: “I don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty.”

The article is well-linked pointing to such nuggets as:


Additional reading:
Matthews Simmons: Oil may have peaked,
Marianne Lavelle: Hostage to oil,
Mick Winter: Peak Oil, include me out,
[Blog credit: Adam Curry]

Oral history saves lives

Quote of the day:

“When you get real old, honey, you realize there are certain things that just don’t matter anymore. You lay it all on the table. There’s a saying: Only little children and old folks tell the truth.”

Sarah Louise Delany.

Simeulue Island in Indonesia was about 40 miles from the epicentre of 9.0 earthquake that shook the ocean floor and sent killer tsunamis racing across the Indian Ocean before crashing onto its northern shores.

The earthquake tipped the island up 4 feet on one side, and minutes later 33-foot high waves snapped palm trees and power poles, flattened houses, and obliterated whole villages.

Yet, miraculously, only seven of the 75,000 villagers died.

AP reporter Margie Mason writes how oral history saved their lives.

Older villagers remembered their grandparents’ tales of the “semong” that had taken thousands of lives in 1907 and fled for higher ground.

“Everyone ran to the hills,” said Randa Wilkinson of the aid agency Save the Children. “They took bicycles and motorbikes and wheelbarrows and piled the kids in whatever they could get them in.”

Rebuilding their lives, villagers say they will pass the story of the semong down to future generations, even if another disaster never happens.

“I don’t want to see a lot of people die,” said Siti Marwani, 25, balancing a child on her hip. “I have to talk about it with my grandchildren.”


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